aronitethinking

Gaddafi regaining Rebel held territories and pressing East

Military analyst confirms Aronite thinking’s analysis 3 days ago on Libyan Uprising

Is there any hope of Libya’s rebels regaining the territory that they have lost to
Gaddafi’s forces?

Riad Kahwaji, a military analyst in Dubai, tells Al Jazeera the rebels need to resort to “guerrilla warfare tactics” in order to repel Gaddafi’s forces.

This what we wrote some 3 days ago –
We had predicted Gaddafi would not be displaced due to 2 reasons.
Firstly his superior Military resources.
More importantly however, United States fear of alienating its client States like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Bahrain that would see in an intervention to end human misery there as a domino effect that would in turn lead to displacement of their own autocratic regimes.

In an email to the rebellion volunteer media spokesmen Aronite thinking wrote this on March 12th 2011

Gaddafi loyalist forces are steadily moving closer to the eastern
Stronghold of the Rebel base at Benghazi, which would be his next
Encirclement since his forces have already taken over Brega, its
Nearest outpost.
While the fall of Al Rauf that had minimal Rebel contingent force was
expected, Rebels should have no expected this serious reverse of fall
of Brega a traditional hotbed of anti-Gaddafi resistance as well as
Islamists who had volunteered as mercenaries for Al Qaeda in
Afghanistan and Iraq.
It is now clear that Rebels would be mopped up, quickly as time is of essence.
Unless, General Abdel surprises with a counter offensive employing
Guerrilla tactics by striking at transport and fuel facilities, and
Urban centers deep inside Gaddafi’s centre of Sirte, Tripoli and cut
off the links to South.
Conventional mismatch of forces should be clear for him now and he
must take up dispersal of units and desert based urban guerrilla
warfare.
Much depends on help from nations like France and the U.K. who should
supply the logistics and America that can send in Covert Operatives as
Advisers.
France since it had been the first Nation to recognize the Eastern
National Council should be obliged to lend its Military advisers and
its logistic back up.

Unless Gaddafi is setback with a counter offensive, the Libyan
Uprising is perilously close to being snuffed out.

In this most recent Update since outbreak of the Rebellion, Al Jazeera reports the remarkable advances and turnaround of fortunes for Gaddafi.

We had analysed and anticipated this debacle outcome right from the start-Read our article at link-
Libyan crisis U.S committing historic blunder- Calls mount for Military action at Headline Pages.

Thanks to the hesitation of the rebels to call for international Military intervention, the vested interests of Gulf client states that restrain America, for they fear their own regimes to succumb to such popular unrests, and last but not least the shrewd exploitation of the Military weakness of rebels in weaponry and lack of air support, Gaddafi had quickly deployed an Air attack based ground offensive that is fast making inroads into Rebel held territories.

Gaddafi loyalist forces are steadily moving closer to the eastern stronghold of the Rebel base at Benghazi, which would be his next encirclement since his forces have already taken over Brega, its nearest outpost.
While the fall of Al Rauf that had minimal Rebel contingent force was expected, Rebels should have no expected this serious reverse of fall of Brega a traditional hotbed of anti-Gaddafi resistance as well as Islamists who had volunteered as mercenaries for Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Iraq.

[

It is now clear that Rebels would be mopped up, quickly as time is of essence.
Unless, General Abdel surprises with a counter offensive employing Guerrilla tactics by striking at transport and fuel facilities, and urban centres deep inside Gaddafi’s centre of Sirte, Tripoli and cut off the links to South.
Conventional mismatch of forces should be clear for him now and he must take up dispersal of units and desert based urban guerrilla warfare.
Much depends on help from nations like France and the U.K. who should supply the logistics and America that can send in Covert Operatives as Advisers.
France since it had been the first Nation to recognise the Eastern National Council should be obliged to lend its Military advisers and its logistic back up.

Unless Gaddafi is setback with a counter offensive, the Libyan uprising is perilously close to being snuffed out.

The Story so far-

Mrs. Hillary Rodham Clinton put it bluntly to the tenacious Dictator-

Qaddafi must “Quit now and surrender… without further violence or delay.”

The pentagon had moved its warships to the region and America had offered its assistance to the rebels who have so far hesitating accepting help.

Defiant Qaddafi however, demonstrated his resourcefulness by conducting air raids by MIGs that blasted three Rebel strongholds, but rebels managed to repulse them at Zuwaiya with anti-Aircraft guns.

Air raids had been launched from traditional Qaddafi bastion of Sirte.
Of the five raids, only a hit at an arms depot was admitted by Rebels as effective while the rest produced no results.

Benghazi’s southern neighborhood was bombed as well as Ajdabiya.
On the ground offensive, only the Oil refinery at Al Rauf however was retaken by Qaddafi Loyalists.

Rebel high command explained away this set back due to rebels having only light arms, while at Zuwaiya the antiaircraft guns enabled them to hold on their positions.

Zuwaiya trounces the dreaded Khamis thrust

Repeated attempts by the heavily armed battalion of the khamis battalion belonging to one of Qaddafi’s sons failed to gain ground at zuawaiya.
The khamis sustained heavy losses of personnel and equipment as Rebels blasted the trucks and returned fire capturing many of its soldiers.
By late evening, the pincer attack from east and West of town failed due to heavy artillery bombardment by the rebels and at least 11 soldiers taken captive who have defected since then.

REBEL COMMAND WAITING FOR THE OPPURTUNE MOMENT

Having very few military resources that cannot be replaced, the high Command of rebels stoically took any reverses and refused to be tempted into expending their reserves.
These were mostly seized at great cost of civilian lives and were being serviced and gotten ready by civilian volunteers.
The much experienced general Abdel weathered the impatient calls for immediate action and seems to be rightly appraising Kaddafi’s moves and studying to obtain a weak spot.

Misurata holds the key

We have already pointed out in our analysis that Misruta holds the key.

Qaddafi loyalists are shelling the town and it here that general Abdel must give Kaddafi the lethal blow by not just repulsing but amassing his reserves in the final thrust towards Qaddafi’s base at Bab Al Aziziya.

The General however is hoping to finish the battle with an Air attack, but this would be foreseen and Qaddafi would dig himself deep underground in a bunker.

Land encirclement with a siege that locks him in, would however render him vulnerable through air attack, but for that the rebels need bunker penetrating bombs and guided missiles like the Hell fire.

That is exactly America is willing to provide and the General is fully aware of this option.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: